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The task for future farmers: Feed 9,000,000,000 people

Jan Aagaard — Thu, 29 Dec 2016 16:38:14 +0000

The world’s population is growing and in 2050 will exceed 9 billion. At the same time, more and more people can afford to eat larger quantities of meat. These factors will combine to create a need for much more food than the world produces today. Can we produce enough food in the future – without destroying the Earth’s environment and climate? Artikel bragt i magasinet Focus Denmark A person residing in India eats an average of 5 kilos of meat per year, while an American eats more than 120 kilos. However, average meat consumption in India is increasing rapidly as the country becomes richer and more Indians enter the ranks of the middle class. In 2050, the average Indian is expected to consume more than 18 kilos of meat annually – nearly four times as much as today. Meanwhile, the Indian population continues to grow. In 35 years, the Indian population will have increased by 400 million – from 1.2 billion today to 1.6 billion in 2050 – passing China as the world’s most populous nation. The Indian example illustrates one of the greatest global challenges in the coming decades: How will we produce enough food for the growing world population? This trend of a growing population and rising demand for meat and other foods is hardly limited to India. According to UN estimates, the global population in 2050 will have increased to 9.6 billion, or 2.4 billion more than 2013. The majority of this growth will take place in Sub-Saharan African countries and Asia, but other regions of the world will also see population growth – with Europe and Oceania as the only exceptions. Meanwhile, the standard of living is increasing in many developing countries. This increasing prosperity and population growth is leading to a rapidly increasing demand for food. Although more than 800 million people suffer from starvation, an ever-increasing number of people can afford ample sustenance and large sections of the population that previously lived exclusively on rice, grains and vegetables are beginning to eat meat and dairy products. In 2050, global meat consumption is expected to be 73% greater than in 2011. When people eat meat rather than plant products, far more crops must be cultivated. This is because much of the energy is lost in the transformation from plants to meat through livestock feed. For example, it takes 7 kilos of grain to produce 1 kilo of beef and 4 kilos of grain to produce 1 kilo of pork. Therefore, the same cultivated area can feed far fewer meat eaters than vegetarians. “We are basically facing a huge challenge, which is not only about providing enough food for three billion more people. The greatest challenge is the growing demand due to increased prosperity. We can probably feed the world in 2050, but it will be very difficult to feed the world with meat,” says Professor Kristian Thorup-Kristensen from the University of Copenhagen’s Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences.

Need for a giant leap

According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), 69% more food calories will be required in 2050 to meet the average daily calorie needs of the world’s population. The question is whether the global agriculture production can produce enough food to meet this need – and what consequences this may have for the Earth’s environment and climate. Until now, the world has largely been able to increase its agricultural production in line with global population growth. In principle, we could now produce enough food to provide sustenance to the entire world if the starving and malnourished people could afford to the buy the goods. Food production has increased throughout the previous century, particularly during “the green revolution” in the 1960s and following decades, where the breeding of maize, wheat, rice and other crops was combined with an increased use of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation and farm machinery. These factors led to a three-fold increase in the grain production of developing countries in just four decades. Similar giant leaps may also be required in the coming years. According to WRI, meeting the need for food in 2050 without increasing the total area of cultivated land would require growth exceeding that seen from the 1960s to today by about one-third. However, there are no prospects of such major improvements in crop yields from intensive agriculture in the developed countries. Meanwhile, the potential for improving yields remains great in many developing countries – particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the green revolution never materialised due to a combination of factors.

Expansion of agricultural areas

Agricultural production can also be increased by expanding farmland. Today, 37% of the world’s land area outside Antarctica is already used for agricultural production. Yet according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), it is still possible to expand the world’s farmland by more than two-fold. However, the conversion of forests, savannahs and other natural areas to farmland entails the risk of major environmental consequences. The expansion of farmlands is already one of the main causes of the destruction of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity. And farming uses 70% of all fresh water drawn from rivers, lakes and groundwater, while water shortages are a significant problem in many regions. Increased agricultural production is also a threat to the climate. Agriculture accounts for nearly a quarter of the global emissions of greenhouse gases that lead to climate change; and although it is possible to increase the carbon efficiency of agriculture, an expansion of farmland will inevitably result in higher emissions. Moreover, climate change itself is a threat to agricultural production, as it will lead to less favourable growing conditions and poorer soil quality in many places – this is particularly true for large parts of Africa, Asia and South America.

Three major challenges

“We will have to tackle three major challenges at the same time,” says Niels Halberg, Director of the Danish Centre for Agriculture at Aarhus University. “We must produce more food for a growing population. At the same time, we have to do so with reduced environmental impact to protect the aquatic environment, arable land and the biodiversity on which agriculture depends. The third challenge is climate change, which will have a negative impact on agricultural production in many parts of the world,” he explains. This means that we can no longer rely exclusively on the classic models of agriculture, which involve adding more fertilizer and expanding farmland to increase production. “We need models that are based more on knowledge and biological understanding of the natural regulation. We have to use fewer pesticides and combine farmers’ capacity for innovation with research and knowledge to develop what we call agroecological methods,” says Halberg. Halberg and other leading researchers in the field stress that many different paths of development will be needed. “There is no simple solution to the problem, as the cultivation of crops is affected by physical, biological and socio-economic factors. To increase agricultural production, you have to address a variety of things – from new technologies and development of crops, to land reform and training of farmers,” says Kristian Thorup-Kristensen. There are big differences between the approaches required in developing countries and in the more industrialised parts of the world. “For intensive agriculture, this could mean using new technology such as sensors that collect information about the condition of the soil and plants so that you can add fertiliser and other materials in the right amounts at the right time. It is also necessary to learn to use agroecological methods, for instance for controlling weeds without using chemicals,” says Halberg. “In agriculture with low productivity in Asia and Africa, the main things lacking are knowledge and resources. These regions can achieve much higher yields by training the local farmers and using agroecological methods,” says the Danish researcher.

The Danish example

Danish agriculture is a good example, showing that is possible to produce large amounts of food in a limited area while still taking the environment into consideration. Denmark now produces nearly three times more food than its 5.6 million inhabitants can eat, while the Danish farmers and food companies are among the world’s leaders in sustainable, intensive food production. The high efficiency is largely due to the close cooperation between farmers, consultants, researchers and industry that was founded in connection with the rise of the cooperative movement in Denmark more than 100 years ago, which included the founding of cooperative dairies, abattoirs and animal feed businesses. This created the foundation for innovation by Danish famers and food companies, which have intensified their focus in recent decades on getting “more with less”. The production of agricultural products in Denmark has grown by 18% since 1990, while simultaneously reducing the overall environmental impact. For example, nitrogen runoff from fertiliser, which affects the aquatic environment, has been reduced by 45%. This is because the agricultural sector has developed better methods for optimising the utilisation of nitrogen, e.g. by embedding manure in the soil and spreading it on fields at the optimum times. Greenhouse gas emissions have also declined by 23% since 1990. Danish farmers have optimised livestock production as well. Milk production from Danish dairy cows has increased on average by more than 50% since the 1980s, while carbon emissions from production during that time have been reduced. Danish farmers are now among the most efficient dairy and pork producers in the world in terms of greenhouse gas emissions – thanks in large part to improvements in cultivation methods and feed composition. Many of the results achieved in Denmark would also be possible in other countries; and there is now significant international interest in the Danish models for the use of manure fertiliser and the production of milk and pork. “Danish farmers are skilled at keeping nutrients inside the circuit and they have a low consumption of water, fertiliser and pesticides. I have seen great interest in the Danish know-how among colleagues and partners in regions including China and South America,” says Professor Jørgen E. Olesen from the Aarhus University Department of Agroecology. Olesen points to the close collaboration between researchers, consultants and farmers as something that would also provide good results in other countries. Læs artiklen i Focus Denmark Ipaper (åbner i nyt vindue)

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The future of the Internet

Jan Aagaard — Thu, 29 Dec 2016 16:12:09 +0000

The global IT company Cisco has partnered with cities across Europe and North America, including Copenhagen, to develop the digital infrastructure of tomorrow.

Artikel bragt i magasinet Focus Denmark

Cities around the world are in the process of developing tomorrow’s digital infra-structure.

The global IT giant Cisco has formed partnerships with a number of European and North American cities, including the Danish capital of Copenhagen, to focus on this development (see international cases on page 75 and Copenhagen cases on page 76).

Cisco calls these activities the Internet of Everything (IoE) – an extension of the concept of the Internet of Things, which describes a digital network connecting people, data, processes and things (see top of spread). Cisco’s partnership with Copenhagen, formed in 2014, includes the City of Copenhagen and the nearby municipalities of Frederikssund and Albertslund.

In the coming years, these three municipalities will develop and test technologies such as intelligent street lighting, green waves in traffic for busses and cyclists, and energy saving technology in office buildings and private homes.

The new high-tech solutions will help Copenhagen in a wide range of areas, including the city’s efforts to achieve its goal of becoming the world’s first carbon neutral capital city by 2025.

Copenhagen and Cisco intend to learn from each other and, in collaboration with other municipalities, companies and research institutions, develop new products and solutions for traffic, parking, outdoor lighting, climate protection, the environment, energy supply and communication with citizens.

Globally, Cisco estimates that IoE in the public sector alone will generate a value of $4.6 billion over the next 10 years. The value of IoE in the private sector is estimated to be nearly three times that amount.

Chicago:
Technology to prevent crime

Public and private stakeholders in Chicago are involved in a number of Smart+Connected Community initiatives. For example, the Team Approach to Violence project helps citizens, NGOs, police and public organisations use digital technologies such as the web, mobile telephones and text messages to share information and engage in dialogue to increase security and combat violence and crime.

cityofchicago.org

New York:
Touch screens show the way

The company City24/7, in collaboration with Cisco and the City of New York, has launched an interactive platform integrating information from the public sector, private companies and citizens, and making it easily accessible to citizens. Touch screens located at bus stops, train stations, shopping centres and sports facilities provide citizens with real-time information, services and offers from their immediate surroundings. The information can also be accessed via Wi-Fi from smartphones, tablets and laptop computers.

nyc.gov

Barcelona:
A single operating system for the entire city

In recent years, the Spanish city of Barcelona has implemented a range of smart city programmes in areas such as environment, energy, IT and communication technologies (ICT). The city is presently working on about 80 different projects of this nature. For example, sensors are used to collect data on the city’s water resources, lighting and energy consumption. The next major step will be the establishment of a “City OS” – a comprehensive operating system where all data from many different platforms in the city will be collected and analysed.

bcn.cat/en

Nice:
Sensors assign parking spaces

In the southern French city of Nice, a coalition has been formed to establish and test smart city solutions based on the Internet of Everything concept (see box). Nice is working with projects in the areas of smart circulation, smart lighting, smart waste management and smart environment monitoring. For example, the coalition has developed a “connected boulevard” with 200 sensors connected to the internet to help drivers find parking spaces and to adapt street lighting to traffic, weather and light conditions.

nice.fr

Hamburg:
Managing roads, bridges and ships

The port of Hamburg is one of Europe’s largest and most important ports. To improve and monitor the management of traffic on land and at sea, the port authority began using sensors on roads and bridges several years ago. The sensors track things such as traffic congestion and provide information to drivers via digital displays and mobile applications, while ship traffic is monitored via radar and other systems. The plan is to integrate the various data into a system enabling improved road traffic management when bridges in the port area are closed due to passing ships.

english.hamburg.de

Læs artiklen i Focus Denmark Ipaper (åbner i nyt vindue)

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To sail is to live

Jan Aagaard — Wed, 30 Nov 2016 20:51:09 +0000

Throughout Denmark’s history, shipping has played a vital role for the country and made its mark on everything from the economy and employment to urban development, architecture and cultural history.

Artikel bragt i magasinet Focus Denmark

Every year, more than 30,000 ships sail through the Oresund Strait, the narrow waters between Sweden and Denmark. Vessels of all kinds sail this route on their journey to or from the Baltic Sea, from container ships and coasters to bulk carriers and cruise ships. Standing on the beach in front of Kronborg Castle in Elsinore and looking to Sweden, one can practically wave to officers on the bridges of large ships passing through the sound.

As the gatekeeper to the Baltic Sea, Denmark’s geographic location has made its mark on the country’s history, providing much of the basis for Denmark’s development into one of the world’s leading maritime nations.

The seas represent the easiest and cheapest method of transporting goods. Ninety percent of the goods we consume have been transported by sea at one time or another. Maritime transport lies at the heart of globalisation and modern consumer society.

The need for maritime transport has always existed, growing hand in hand through the centuries with increasing international trade. Shipping has always been a source of income; Danes have been active in the business from the Viking era until the present day, where 10 percent of global trade is transported by ships under Danish control.

Surrounded by the sea, Denmark is a country with more than 400 islands and a total coastline of over 7,000 kilometres. The 1,000-year history of Denmark’s capital is largely a story of maritime shipping and trade, as suggested by its name, Copenhagen, meaning “merchant’s harbour”. The same can be said for many of Denmark’s largest cities and the majority of its island communities.

Denmark now holds a position as the world’s fifth largest shipping nation and Danish shipping companies currently control approximately 2,100 merchant ships that sail around the world; most of these ships are rarely in Denmark. But sometimes you can see one of them in the Oresund Strait, the Great Belt or other Danish waters, where it all began about 1,000 years ago.

From viking ships to super tankers

The sea has always been an important means of transport for the Danes; waters did not separate, but rather connected the nation. To trade with other Danes and the rest of the world, you had to sail.

The Vikings build sturdy and seaworthy vessels – some powered by rowing, others equipped with sails. They set off on long voyages to destinations including the British Isles, Greenland and even North America. The Vikings also sail along the coast of Western Europe to the Mediterranean, reaching modern-day Istanbul, and along the Russian rivers.

From distant lands they bring jewellery, gold coins and other valuables home to Denmark. The Viking era marks the beginning of international shipping in Denmark while shaping the Danish kingdom. The Vikings meet in fjords and bays with a safe anchorage and a population to trade with, giving rise to the Danish port cities and towns in which shipping and trade have since evolved.

1400 – 1500
Denmark imposes a special toll, called Sound Dues, on foreign ships passing through the narrow strait between Helsingborg and Elsinore (photo), where Kronborg Castle – known as the home of Shakespeare’s Hamlet – was built to guard the gateway to the Baltic Sea. The toll brings the Danish state great wealth from the growing trade between Western Europe and countries along the Baltic Sea. Danish ships also partake in trade, servicing harbours in the Netherlands, England and other countries. In the late sixteenth century, 4,000 to 5,000 ships pass through the Oresund Strait each year. Denmark also assists international shipping by establishing lighthouses and markings in the waters that ships sail through on the way to and from the Baltic Sea.

1600
The Danish merchant fleet transports cargo for Dutch, German, English and Polish merchants. The Danish King Christian IV founds a number of trading companies that truly internationalise Danish shipping and trade. The companies equip large ships for multi-year trading expeditions and establish trading strongholds in India (photo), Guinea and the Caribbean. Ships can be away from Denmark for years. A journey to the Danish colonies in India typically takes 18 months, assuming the ship does not encounter any delays, which are common and often fatal. Of 76 ships sent from Denmark to India from 1616 to 1720, at least 11 sink; and many sailors typically die on voyages, mainly due to illness.

1700
Wars between the great maritime powers in Europe trigger explosive growth in the need for transport under a neutral flag. Danish ships are virtually the only ones free to sail in the colonies, shipping goods to countries such as France, England and the Netherlands. With state support, Danish ships transport sugar from the French colonies in the Caribbean to France, cotton from India and tea from China to England, and colonial goods from Indonesia home to the Netherlands. The Danish capital Copenhagen blossoms economically, transforming into a European metropolis with connections across the globe. Wealthy merchants and ship owners build large mansions in the city.

1800
At the beginning of the 1800s, the number of ships flying the Danish flag peaks at about 3,500 vessels. Danish merchants and sailors earn great wealth and the merchant fleet continues to grow; in relation to its population, Denmark becomes one of the era’s greatest seafaring nations. However, Denmark’s entry into the Napoleonic Wars on the French side ends catastrophically for Danish shipping in 1807. The nation loses hundreds of merchant ships and thousands of Danish sailors are held in British captivity. In the late 1800s, a number of steamship companies are founded, many of which play a central role in Danish shipping to this day.

1900
Danish merchant ships sail in most parts of the world and increasingly operate scheduled traffic, including to Asia and the Americas. Shipping companies such as East Asiatic Company, or simply EAC, Maersk and J. Lauritzen become major industry players. In 1912, EAC introduces Selandia, the world’s first ocean liner with a diesel motor and in 1920 EAC is Denmark’s largest company. In the 1970s, Maersk successfully transitions to container traffic, while other shipping companies pursue other specialties, including reefer ships, gas tankers and bulk carriers.

2014
Denmark is the world’s fifth largest shipping nation and around 10 percent of world trade is transported by ships under Danish control. Maersk Line is the world’s largest container shipping company, with more than 600 ships, 35,000 port calls per year and 100,000 customers around the world. Other Danish shipping companies, such as Norden, DFDS, Clipper, J. Lauritzen and Torm, are strong in other highly specialised areas such as product tankers, bulk carriers and service vessels for the offshore industry.

Læs artiklen i Focus Denmark Ipaper (åbner i nyt vindue)

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